Last time seems a lot of discussion on PARKSON over here http://bursa-maniac.blogspot.sg/2013/05/parkson-holdings-bhd-parkson-5657.html
Now the descending triangle seems broken.... is a genuine break down or false break down before push up break through the long term down trend line? Let's discuss.
Divergence in volume, new low but volume is shrinking. We need a wyckoffian price action retest to anaylze this chart. Those that use VSA, David Weis, Tom Williams, those are users of Wyckoff. They only use Price and Volume. Try to use weekly chart to read ? You will find something very beautiful.
I did said it will hold at about 3.7 it did hold an up to about 4.00 it resistance point , then down again ,now was below 3.70 to 3.60 , if it not able to hold at 3.60 may have the chance to see about 3.40 which i had said some time ago , at that price I believe it had complete a big price cycle , which is easy to view by using weekly chart. If you combine both TA n FA, you will see that the downside is limited. The group is now planning for aggressive expansion in China n SEA. China economy never had a problem, they all make noice because growth rate revised lower only. Down on the ground here in China, everything is normal even during the so-called bank run. For this counter, I prefer dollar averaging n keep it for long term. If we use TA as a guideline I would say that the from the chart we should able to see the big boys had release their stock which they should let go start it drop down from about RM10.00. Now should be the time to collect it back , if they not able to collect around the price range of 4.00 to 3.50 I wont be surprise to see them press to about RM3.00 or lower. normally this type of counter not my pick. The group plans to setup 7-8 Parkson in China and few in SEA yearly. The reason that the profit drop last 2 years is because of China n Vietnam slowdown. Next year onward we will see double digit growth in their ROE. Recently, company and also many funds including Singapore Gov fund have started to acquire the shares. So, I think the bottom is formed. In case if we see any shake out is just a beginning of the new up trend. 28/8/13 was the date of it TC low it resistance was at 3.37 , if able stand firm above 3.37 then the next resistance 3.47 ,3.60. If it really able to reach 3.70 sure will have strong selling pressure to press it down. for me i will not look at this counter, I will look for counters which are at high now.
Don't get a worker which just come out from hospital , better to look for a worker which is strong may be have to pay a bit high for him to work for you. 2cents view.
I wont go there though. I can only say, business is usual for me and my suppliers, business is also usual for my neighbors, I do not see any doomsday sign like what is reported. Bank run wise, well it is normal during mid year to have lower cash in bank. This is seasonal. My suppliers all also not afraid bank go bust, they re used to it. May be the analysts are not comfortable with the single digit growth rate in china. That's why people say slowdown. If the 7.5 apply to Malaysia then they will say economy is booming. By the way, I believe there are still issue with over capacity in infra materials such steel, cement and so on. Maybe they not happy, I don't know. But on the ground is normal.
Materials surplus in China is normal also. They always got surplus material one. Clean water... depends which area, China so big. If major cities I believe the water is as clean or cleaner than in Malaysia. Parkson not popular in China actually, they ll have to do more than what they re doing. Aeon is more famous, in comparison. Supposedly they have a few outlets in Shenzhen and Guangzhou but I would not say they re damn famous. Famous coffee chain are like Ming Tien, or UBC Coffee . Perhaps Parkson not competitive in China. As said, they need to do more than what they re doing now. Parkson is relocating its store. It is closing down some stores but also plan to open new stores. It opened 2 stores in 1st half of the year and plan to open another 7 in coming month. However, this is not enough for it to turn-around. The critical point is its 20 year old out-dated business model has to be changed to adapt to current intensive competition from China local supermarkets, shopping malls. China market is big but the environment here indeed is dynamic. Store expansions will take time to generate sales also. Accounting wise, you will get more setup costs and amortization charges. What is good for China is also good for Parkson and Hai O, Chinese economy is recovering, Chinese consumers' buying power is back.
Rebound or reverse are different thing.
Before reverse, a bottom must be done...and this one shloud hav a big bottom before reverse. Dow Jones reversed in "V" shape pattern in April 2009 without building a bottom. I see it look more than rebound than reversal,but no problem, it already hit 100 MA resistance. Should be having a retracement soon. See this time can form a higher low,then it will confirm a lot of things for us
Take time...as the chart will always shows.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
