Bursa Maniac

Sharing my view on Dow Jones, after my friend mentioned the importance of OI (Open Interest), I went to search for OI for the biggest stock market Dow Jones. This is what I discovered.

Based on the price trend, volume, and open interest, global stock market is still far away from a big crash. OK, so the drop in 2011 what you see? OI did not go down, price did peaked since now we backhand, Trendline indeed is broken since we backhand analysis, panic selling is sentiment nothing to do with chart. So, back to OI... same OI roughly but drop more than 1000 points.

If you see back in late 2007 until late 2008, Dow Jones kept dropping 1000 points consecutively, that, my friend, is the real stock market crash ! So it is not 1000 points. It is prolonged 1000 points drop, then this method would work. Nowadays people keep talking about Syria War and how market would crash with this war, but chart language shows us they are all wrong. Again, what is crash? Some have been waiting for this pullback to enter more positions in the market and have not liquidated their positions at all. Some plays short term like FKLI, if did not liquidate longs, then seriously hurt. In fact, some have shorted and made. My conclusion that they are all wrong now is based on this chart, on the OI. So if whatever reasons, DJI drop 2K points, still consider normal and not crash.

Some folk remains unconvinced that market is resuming its uptrend. As posted previously here, there has to be a meaningful consolidation. Thus far, it only have a big drop followed by a sharp rebound. Is this rebound a dead cat bounce? I do not know yet but it is still leaving the gap in FKLI continuous daily chart. Hence the danger of island reversal in FKLI remains. U.S. market hasn't even dropped a lot. And high OI and volume show that money is still flowing into this hot market. They have QE to flow in the money.


Well, the 2000 points drop in 2011 was not considered a crash, it was purposely engineered by the big hands behind, because in November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing (QE2), but only buying $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.

They pressed down the price so they could buy low sell high and continue to ride the bullish trend. Open interest and volume in futures will only get bigger and bigger from time to time because the market is ever growing . The problem with open interest is that open interest tends to shrink a few days before the rollover period. Volume will spike too. Next month contract will have lots of volume too. That is why in Khalid Embong's futures chart , he never shows volume n open interest. But .... If one can break the code of volume n open interest in the futures market, he will have an edge that most traders do not have. Open interest measures the flow of money into the futures market. That chart i shown above is the monthly chart of DJI, and on larger time frame we can see it very clear than OI was dropping before the big crash, it merely said the 'flow of money' was gone out from the market in late 2011.

In this year , especially 2012 until now we do not see any money outflow from US market yet. The OI explanation sounds nice, but when put into chart, does not seem to be true. using this chart, you still cannot explain why when prices keep dropping a few thousand point and OI goes up.
Actually, OI method still work, but the way it is explained now is horribly wrong and will cause more harm than good. In year 2011, prices went down, and OI was still high because OI did not show a weakening sign before the 2000 points drop, that means money flow is still into US market and the funds did not exit the market yet, so a better explanation is the 2000 points drop was only a small profit taking, and did not affect the uptrend of a larger time frame. The chart is there, your guide to read is there. Go plot the trend change. Post a new chart showing the OI method as you say now. See if it works then tell me if I am judgmental or not.

Ladies and gentlemen, do you think history will repeat itself like the late 2011 where Dow Jones dropped 1,000 points within 4 weeks ?

Probably drop as of the uncertainty of Syria War decision. Moreover, do not forget the General Election thing. Meeting in the mid of Sept as well. USA attack Syria, market would go up since before the war the panic was already factored by the market ? If so happen DJ down from the chart 14680 should be a very good support. Ya should be US press down the DJI to get ready for the attack .my zero cent view.

DJI at this stage should consider is stable so what type of rebound call strong rebound ? you want it to shoot up 300 to 500 points , do you think that is good for the market ? as long as it able to hold above 14770 should say very good. It may enter into correction for long term up trend. US economy just picking up and unemployment continue to reduce. Euro already escape from recession. Will start growing next year. Market crash will come but may not be so soon.

By the way , South East Asian are vulnerable. I hope more good news coming to tackle fiscal deficit issues n I also bet Najib will support KLCI before UMNO general election. If out rating can be upgraded to A after budget 2014 announcement, it will be a positive news to the market. Let see, but I always buy on weakness on those counters in my radar. US economy recovery is a must not only for Americans, but also for china, India, emerging economies & Russia.

We need to observe global market too especial United Stated which is the lead for other region market. Every policy made on U.S, war on Arab or financial crisis on Europe will greatly affected Malaysia equity.

Look from DJI weekly and daily chart can see that it move at a very nice trend daily chart channel move in the weekly chart tunnel , the cycle is about 2 mths this show what ? shown that was planned ,when they press down the DJI then so easy for them to kick down the Asian market.



Different investors have different idea of market view too some use emotion to read the market some use logical way some use TA some use Zodiacal way, for me none of above is wrong, cos some time emotion work some time logical work fine some time TA work fine , for me TA should work better just because i use TA
Happy to see CI had move above 1760 go above it auto resistance level this level is a very important level if not able to hold above market will never have chance to go higher, if it really able to stand above 3 more days will meet a TC point the blue arrow.

Where should the DJI headed to ? Some weeks ago heard many people talk about it, traders worry about it movement because DJI have fever may make our Bursa get H1N1.
My forecast on DJI - it may touch 15500 .about 5 to 6 trading day will reach it TC of high.  up 121.18 to 15,354.40. If next Thursday or Friday TC of high mean for more days to go at this speed DJI will be move to than 15500 ? then my forecast will be wrong ? Base on 1 method yes it is near 15500 , if base on 2 methods maybe significant high is around 167XX ，but time is the most important factor to determine it turning pt. Thursday DJI move to as high as 15,542.40 then press down to 15,307.17 down 81 points ,mean had reach the TC of high and also touch above 15500 end of this session of high ? If so what will happen to our market ? Yesterday at MAD MAD chat FORUM had call friends be alert Bursa may have correction. After touching 15500++ then down now close at 15294 , let us wait and watch what will happen after 4 more trading days from now.